Violent or nonviolent: which protests succeed?

Do violent protests achieve more than nonviolent ones?

Chart comparing policy reform movements from 1955 to 2018. 50.4% of 2,234 mainly nonviolent movements achieved full or partial success, against 47.6% of 21 mainly violent ones, with results also shown for 1955–2005 and 2006–2018. The figures are in the table below the article.

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Policy reform movements, 1955–2018: demands about wages, public services, rights and other reforms.

A comparison of 2,255 major movements seeking policy reforms shows:

Mainly nonviolent: 50.4% achieved full or partial success.
Mainly violent: 47.6%.

But the sample sizes tell an essential part of the story: 2,234 nonviolent movements versus just 21 violent ones.

What changed over time?

Between 1955–2005 and 2006–2018:

Nonviolent movements: 51.7% → 46.8%.
Violent movements: 40.0% → 66.7%.

That apparent rise for violent movements comes from just 4 successes among 6 recent cases. It cannot establish that violence became more effective.

About the data

The comparison covers demands about wages, public services, rights and other reforms. “Success” consistently includes both full achievement and partial gains.

These are sustained movements involving at least 1,000 participants—not every demonstration. Classification follows the predominant method, so mainly nonviolent movements can include minor violent elements. Differences in context, reporting and unresolved outcomes also limit comparisons.

The figures describe historical outcomes; they do not prove that choosing a tactic causes success.

The figures from the chart

Policy reform movements, 1955–2018: movements achieving full or partial success, by main method and period.
Movements and period	Successful movements	All movements	Full or partial success	Full success	Partial gains
Mainly nonviolent, 1955–2018	1,127	2,234	50.4%	16.5%	33.9%
Mainly nonviolent, 1955–2005	852	1,647	51.7%	not broken down in the chart	not broken down in the chart
Mainly nonviolent, 2006–2018	275	587	46.8%	not broken down in the chart	not broken down in the chart
Mainly violent, 1955–2018	10	21	47.6%	28.6%	19.0%
Mainly violent, 1955–2005	6	15	40.0%	not broken down in the chart	not broken down in the chart
Mainly violent, 2006–2018	4	6	66.7%	not broken down in the chart	not broken down in the chart

Periods by recorded onset year. Percentages rounded.

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What should count as protest success: full achievement, partial concessions, or lasting influence on policy?